Thursday, December 20, 2012

Just a little question before we start...

We're gonna have a 'national conversation' on gun control. Thomas Crown at Red State lays out the groundwork for the discussion, and asks a question:


So, as [Lefties] begin their ritual descent into bathing in the blood of children about whom they wouldn’t care were they just inside the birth canal, let’s have the “conversation” about pretending away the Second Amendment they want. Because they want to change the law, the burden of proof lies on them; so here is the first question they must answer: 
Why didn’t restrictive gun control laws save the victims of Newtown?
This is what the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence has to say about Connectictut’s gun control regime:
Connecticut has strong gun laws that help combat the illegal gun market, prevent the sale of most guns without background checks and reduce risks to children, according to the Brady Campaign. In the organization’s 2009 state scorecards released for all 50 states, Connecticut earned 53 points out of a total of 100 and has the nation’s fourth strongest gun laws.
“Connecticut has done more than most states to combat illegal guns and has worked to keep guns out of the hands of dangerous people. In fact, Connecticut has a one-of-a-kind law that allows a judge to remove guns from people who have been determined to be a threat to themselves or others,” said Ron Pinciaro, President of CT Against Gun Violence.
The Washington Post — no opponent of a disarmed citizenry — agrees with this characterization. Connecticut “has among the most stringent gun control laws on the books,” the Post notes, citing three disparate groups of experts, before allowing Connecticut’s chief Democrat to explain that his state can’t enforce its own laws without adult supervision. 
I don’t believe that we should be making domestic policy based on anecdote or on a single event. No system is properly tested in a single instance. The proof of a policy is how it performs over time — after hundreds or thousands of events. But gun control proponents do not agree. Piers Morgan, Michael Moore, Rupert Murdoch, and many more seem to believe that the vicious and evil killings in Connecticut prove the need for more stringent gun control measures. They race to change the law in the wake of tragedies because they know that they long ago lost the policy debate and that cooler heads will reject any such regulation absent the immediate aftermath of a tragedy.
A lesser-noted detail of America’s current demographics is that in the midst of an awful economic downturn, violent crime is falling. Americans recognize that gun crimes have continued to trend down as more law-abiding citizens have gotten access to firearms. So having failed to fool the people into signing onto their policies, they pretend that their ideas have been ignored — rather than considered and rejected again and again — and they call for a “national conversation,” a term of art the Obama Administration has embraced since the beginning that translates into American English as “agree with me, or I’ll regulate it anyway, democracy be damned, you idiots.” 
Defenders of the Bill of Rights ought to welcome that debate, one that we’ve been having for every year of the roughly four decades I’ve drawn breath on this planet. (We keep having it because the Left, like the Roman legions, refuses to admit defeat until they win.) After all, we can and will win one more time if the sense of the American people (also known to its opponents as “the gun lobby,” “the Israel lobby,” and so on) is allowed to prevail. But if we are to discuss the value of gun restrictions, we first need an explanation from gun control advocates of why their ideas failed the victims in Newtown.
As noted above, according to the Brady Campaign, Connecticut has the nation’s fourth-strongest gun laws. The sale and possession of so-called assault weapons are banned under state law. As noted above, the state empowers judges to remove guns from those who constitute a threat. The state earns high marks for gun dealer regulation, reporting of lost or stolen guns, background checks, permit to purchase, child safety, and earns the maximum score on guns in public places. 
So here’s the challenge for gun control advocates: explain why you failed the people of Newtown. You cited Connecticut as a national example. You said its laws “reduce risks to children.” You gave no state a higher rating for keeping guns out of public places — like schools.
And a criminally insane man stole legally-owned guns (owned under Connecticut’s regime) after being denied their legal purchase, broke in through a window, and killed children and adults — adults who were not armed to shoot back, and so died unable to save the children who also died. 
You want this one event to be a national test? Fine. Why are there 20 children dead when the state of Connecticut did what you said they should to keep their people safe? 
Once you answer that question, we can get this conversation underway. [emphasis mine]
We need to strip the bark off these gun-control morons. They created the primary condition necessary for the slaughter of these kids-- the school gun-free zone. They did the bidding of the shooter, in spades. He was assured by gun control advocates of facing no opposition at all for 20 minutes. Connecticut is a gun-control utopia. The citizens of Newtown followed the rules set down by the gun-control imbeciles. 

They got 26 dead kids and teachers for it. 

Gun-control posturing is lethal. Gun-free zones are lethal. Schools need armed protection. Schools need guns in the hands of the good guys. 

This needs to be an in-your-face debate. Gun-control a**holes have blood on their hands. Their policy--- carried out aggressively in Connecticut-- failed. They have no standing in this debate.  

Gun control advocates need to answer, not ask, questions. 

How are all of those Global Warming predictions doing?

Patrick Michaels has a great graph at Forbes, in which he compares the UN climate agency's predictions (colored swaths- FAR means "First Assessment Report", SAR "Second..., etc). Black with error bars is the observed temperatures.

No warming since 1996, despite substantial rise in atmospheric CO2 and hysterical predictions.

Let's move on the next hoax, guys. Eugenics, Overpopulation, Pesticide Hysteria, Global Cooling, Global Warming all splashed. How about acidification of the oceans?


Robert Bork on his conversion to Catholicism

Jurist and legal scholar Robert Bork, who passed away yesterday, gave this interview in 2003 about his conversion to Catholicism.

My conversion had similar themes, as well as personal experiences-- and one in particular-- in which the Lord made Himself quite real to me. He still does. My guess is that Bork has experiences as well, which perhaps he would be reluctant to discuss in an interview. I believe that the Lord draws us to him in a variety of ways-- through reason, through intuition, through emotions, through suffering and trial, through revelation, and through human relationships.

He's terribly persistent. 

Noe on the mind-body problem and the failure of materialist reductionism

Ed Feser quotes philosopher Alva Noe on the Achilles heel of materialist reductionism in science.

Noe:
The scientific revolution took its impulse from what the philosopher Bernard Williams called the Absolute Conception of Reality. This is a conception of the world as "it really is" entirely apart from how it appears to us: a colorless, odorless value-free domain of particles and complexes moving in accordance with timeless and immutable mathematical laws. The world so conceived has no place for mind in it. No intention. No purpose. If there is mind — and of course the great scientific revolutionaries such as Descartes and Newton would not deny that there is mind — it exists apart from and unconnected to the material world as this was conceived of by the New Science.

If modern science begins by shaping a conception of the cosmos, its subject matter, in such a way as to exclude mind and life, then it shouldn't come as a surprise that we can't seem to find a place for them in the natural order so conceived.
This is why Nagel observes, at the beginning of his book, that the mind-body problem isn't just a local problem concerning brains, behavior and the mind; correctly understood it invades our understanding of the cosmos itself and its history.


Materialist reductionism inherently excludes the mind and purpose from science. Coherent explanation of mental phenomenon becomes impossible, because the whole point of the materialist/reductionist enterprise is to decant nature to particles bumping in the void. Materialists even flounder with an explanation for the mathematics to which many natural processes adhere so effectively and so unreasonably. In a world composed entirely of bumping little billiard-balls, materialists are at a loss to explain the elegant mathematics to which the little balls hew.

There is a much better way of understanding the natural world. Aristotelianism posits that change in nature can only be fully understood by examination of four causes-- material, efficient, formal and final. For many practical applications, it's fine to focus on material and efficient causes, in the tradition of science since Newton. But a genuine understanding of nature must incorporate formal causation-- the intelligible aspects of things-- and final causation-- the directedness of change-- loosely speaking, its purpose.

Materialist reductionism, and it's banal application to biology, is a crude mistake. 

Wednesday, December 19, 2012

Precisely what kind of gun control would have stopped Lanza?

From Reason:

... Lanza took the two handguns and the rifle that he had with him on Friday from his mother, who acquired them legally (and who was his first victim), the relevance of lies by gun permit applicants escapes me. Furthermore, the rifle, a .223-caliber Bushmaster M4 carbine, was not covered by the federal "assault weapon" ban (which expired in 2004) or by a smiliar law in Connecticut. Even if it were, plenty of guns equally lethal against schoolchildren (hundreds of millions, in fact) are widely available. That is hardly surprising, since the "assault weapon" category is arbitrary, based more on scary, military-style looks than features that make guns more deadly in the hands of criminals. Likewise, Lanza reportedly used "high-capacity magazines" (holding more than 10 rounds), but millions of these are already in circulation, and they can be readily fabricated no matter their legal status. (That's leaving aside the question of whether the need to swiitch magazines or weapons makes much of a difference in a murderous assault on defenseless people.) The notion that restrictions like these can have a noticeable impact, let alone that they can "end" or "stop" occasional outbursts of senseless violence, is hard to credit unless you believe what Obama insists he does not: that evil can be legislated out of the world by acts of Congress.

Outlawing high capacity magazines sure is a great idea. It would have allowed the little kids and their unarmed kindergarten teacher an opportunity to jump and subdue the gunman during the extra two or three seconds he would have spent reloading the smaller clips.

You can't legislate away evil.

But if you get rid of gun-free zones, you can kill evil, before it kills so many innocents. 

Robert Bork R.I.P.



Robert Bork passed away today. He was the victim of one of the most viscious and dishonest personal attacks by the Left in modern American history.

He was a brilliant judge and legal scholar and a good and brave man. Our nation would have been blessed to have him serve on the Supreme Court.

He will be missed. He was a devout Catholic-- a convert. He is now with the Lord he loves.

Please pray for him and his family.

Fifty percent of active gay men will become HIV positive

Commentor Hoo and I have been having a little back-and-forth about the lifetime risk of acquiring HIV for active gay men. California has recently passed a law making it a crime for a licensed therapist to suggest to a minor that he shouldn't pursue a gay lifestyle.

:-0

I thought that it was worth considering the risk that not challenging the gay lifestyle poses to the kid.

I pointed out that the lifetime risk that an active gay man will become HIV positive is 50%.

I said:

Male homosexual conduct is perhaps the most dangerous activity known to man. Half of male homosexuals get AIDS.
I should have said "... get HIV", which commonly progresses to AIDS. Hoo didn't even notice my actual (minor) error.

Hoo took greater umbrage:
This is spectacularly wrong on a number of levels. It's not so hard to get the right numbers from the CDC. It's amazing that no one has bothered so far.

Here is what CDC says:

Gays represent approximately 2% of the US population. That would be 0.02×300 million = 6 million. At the end of 2009, an estimated 442 thousand of them had HIV. That would be 7 percent. A considerable number, to be sure, but nowhere near 50 percent. Not even close.

But we are not done yet. Having HIV does not necessarily mean having AIDS. Fewer than half of people with an HIV infection have AIDS. That means that the fraction of gays who have AIDS is around 3 percent. Not 50 percent.

... If you could do math, you would go to the CDC webpage and crunch the numbers yourself. Because you suck at math, I will do this for you.

In 2009, 11,400 gay men acquired HIV. Out of 6 million. That gives a probability of 0.0019 per annum. We may estimate the sexually active lifetime of a gay man to be 30 years. The total probability of getting an HIV infection is thus 30×0.0019 = 0.057, or 5.7 percent. Not 50 percent.
It is not surprising that this number is close to the 3 percent I obtained above. HIV has been around for a while, so the population is close to equilibrium.
So I must fire you as my secretary for trying to perform tasks that are clearly above your pay.
Hoo
So, dutiful conservative fact-checker that I am, I followed the link. I clicked HIV/AIDS at the top of the page, and got the HIV/AIDS main page at the CDC.   Then I clicked "Basic Information" (to the left, second down in the little list), which Liberals apparently don't click because... it provides basic information.

Then I clicked "Men Who Have Sex With Men (MSM)" -- it seemed relevant. Did anyone but me notice that Men Who Have Sex With Men and Mainstream Media have the same acronym? Heh.  

Under "Prevention Challenges", the CDC says:  
Results of HIV testing conducted in 21 cities indicated that 19% of MSM tested in 2008 were HIV-positive
:-0

At the same CDC website from which Hoo scribbled his 5th grade statistics project and concluded "that means that the fraction of gays who have AIDS is around 3 percent. Not 50 percent.", the CDC reports explicitly that 19% of MSMs are HIV positive.

Hoo: '3% of gay men are HIV positive.'
CDC: '19% of gay men are HIV positive'

So Dr. Hoo, scientist, underestimated HIV prevalence by 85%, using "data" from the CDC website that actually gives the prevalence, which is 19%.

:)

It gets better. Dr. Hoo, scientist, doesn't understand the difference between prevalence and incidence. Prevalence is the percent of HIV in a population at any given moment. Incidence is likelihood of getting HIV over an interval of time. The incidence of cancer for an individual over a lifetime is about 33%. The prevalence of cancer in the population at any given moment is much less than that, a few percent, perhaps.

My assertion was an incidence assertion-- that the lifetime likelihood of getting HIV for a gay man is 50%.

So where did I get that number from. Well, here:

"A study based upon statistics from 1986 through 1990 estimated that 20-year-old gay men had a 50 percent chance of becoming HIV positive by age 55"
From here.

Literature reference: 
Donald R. Hoover, et al., “Estimating the 1978-1990 and Future Spread of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 in Subgroups of Homosexual Men,” American Journal of Epidemiology, 134(10): 1190-1205, p. 1203 (1991).
Hoo replied to my literature citation:
The work on which this factoid is based is very old: 1991. It is an estimate from the early days of the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Mine is new and is based on hard numbers.

You may fuck off now.
Before I fuck off, let me sum up:

The prevalance of HIV positivity among gay men is 19%. The lifetime risk of a gay man getting HIV is 50%.

In California, if I were a therapist, and I told a kid who was my patient the same facts about the risks of male homosexuality that I just told you, I'd be committing a crime.

The gay agenda marches on.