Monday, February 10, 2014

"Coincidence theorists"

Kyle Smith notes that there are a lot of... coincidences... now that Progressives are in power:

                         Progressives in power looking for payback
A few random news items from around the country: 
Dinesh D’Souza, a prominent conservative filmmaker, was indicted for allegedly violating federal campaign-finance laws. The indictment was “the result of a routine review by the FBI of campaign filings with the FEC by various candidates after the 2012 election for United States senator in New York,” said a spokesman for the US Attorney’s Office. Routine. A Google search for “liberal filmmaker indicted” did not turn up any liberal filmmakers who have been indicted. 
James O’Keefe, a conservative maker of provocative films, said the New York State Department of Labor had taken an intense interest in his shop, Project Veritas, issuing a subpoena and burdensome requests for documents. Days earlier, the Democratic governor of New York state, Andrew Cuomo, had said “extreme conservatives,” of whom O’Keefe might be considered one, “have no place in the state of New York.” Mayor Bill de Blasio added, “I agree.” Finding common ground with the other two, O’Keefe also agreed and said he was moving his small business to New Jersey. 
Another filmmaker, whose crude anti-Islamist video the Obama administration found convenient to blame for the unrelated deaths of four Americans in a Libyan terrorist attack, was arrested within two weeks after Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said, “We will make sure that the person who made that film is arrested and prosecuted.” The maker of the video, Nakoula Basseley Nakoula, who used another name on his short film, was charged with violating his probation by using an alias and going online. He spent three-quarters of a year in prison. 
“Friends of Abe,” a group of conservative Hollywood figures that applied for nonprofit 501(c)(3) status, has seen its application held up for two years while IRS officials demand such information as a list of the group’s members, who would prefer their identities not be made public for fear of losing work. Membership lists are not typically required in such cases. Many other right-wing groups have had similar complaints about the IRS; USA Today reported, “IRS gave liberal groups a pass; Tea Party put on hold.” 
All of this is mere coincidence, of course. The conservative British writer Peter Hitchens has a clever phrase for those who those who insist on seeing no connection among events that might appear at a glance to have something in common: These people, says Hitchens, are coincidence theorists.
I like the term "coincidence theorists". It takes a ton of denial to not see what's happening.

Here's a list of ten more coincidences.

The left-- in its Jacobian or Bolshevik or Fascist or Progressive iterations-- has always been about State power-- everything in the State, nothing outside the State, nothing against the State.

Those naifs or useful idiots who see these criminalizations of political difference as mere coincidences or mere Chicago politics writ federal miss the broad truth.

State thuggery is what the left does, and is doing now, in our country. Why would we have ever thought that "these leftists are gonna be different"?


  1. Let's not forget Glenn Beck and Ben Carson being audited.

    With the IRS however, there is no theory. We know that it's been abused as an instrument of intimidation. That's just a fact. Nixon talked about doing it, Obama did it.

    We also know that none other than then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton promised Tyrone Woods' father that the Mohammad filmmaker would be punished. Not the people who killed his son, of course, but someone who made a video.

    These people are criminal miscreants.


    1. I was audited by the IRS in the late 1990s. Clearly it was the Clintons' fault.


    2. Were you audited immediately after giving a speech that embarrassed the president?

      Yes, sometimes people are merely audited by coincidence. That doesn't mean however that the IRS is never used as a political weapon. Do you deny that the IRS has been weaponized in the Obama years?


  2. There's even a word for this kind of state thuggery: McCarthyism. After the politician McCarthy, well known for his liberal views. Oh wait...

    1. troy:

      What exactly was the "thuggery" that McCarthy perpetrated? I'm curious.

    2. Google it, Egnor. Mostly smearing innocent people and destroying their lives apparently.

      The poor old closeted homosexual literally drank himself to death. Great Catholic he was.

    3. Sorry, Egnor, I don't have the time or the inclination to refute your revisionist lies. Olympic speed skating is more important to me right now.

    4. OMG, Troy likes man in really tight suits!


    5. ' the scorpion says;

      'No I promise. Just talk to me and we can have an honest discussion. Honest. I really mean it.'
      Well, that old Neurosurgeon knows all about that dirty scorpion and his reputation. However, this time the scorpion seemed so normal and decent.
      'Well, OK', the man replied, eager for a stimulating exchange of ideas with someone who thinks differently to himself.
      'You gottit Mr Scorpion. I'm gonna give you the benefit of the doubt and take you seriously just this time after all......''

      See above for the conclusion.

  3. As far as coincidence theories are concerned, there is simple statistics that one can apply to rule out the null hypothesis of pure coincidence.

    1. Take a random sample of famous conservatives, a couple hundred or so.
    2. Multiply by the odds of being audited by the IRS. They are 1 in 91 on average, but one may have to make a correction for income, which would be somewhat above average.
    3. Compare the expectation value to the number of conservatives in this sample who have actually been audited.
    4. Report your results.

    Hope this helps.


    1. And you can use Fisher's exact test to see if the number of audited conservatives significantly exceeds the expected number.

    2. You're ignoring the fact that we already know that the IRS is an executive branch hatchet used to destroy its enemies.

      I assume you could provide me with a counterpart list of well known liberals who have been audited.

      Finally, I wonder where you get the idea that conservatives have an above average income. I thought we were all uneducated rubes. The poorer states in the south are more conservative, the richer states in the north are more liberal. That's a strange assumption you're making.


    3. What are the odds that conservatives can do math?


    4. JQ: Finally, I wonder where you get the idea that conservatives have an above average income. I thought we were all uneducated rubes.

      I wrote "famous conservatives."

      Forget math, start with reading comprehension.


  4. McCarthy had nothing on Obama and Co.. But I'm glad you're making the connection. Just think of the personification of an evil politician. If that image, in your mind, is Joseph McCarthy, so be it. Obama is worse than that. You've essentially admitted that he's engaged in McCarthyism, whatever that means.


    1. Obama is worse than that.

      Prove it. There's some helpful statistical advice by Dr Hoo and myself upthread.

    2. Adm. G Boggs, Glenbeckistan NavyFebruary 10, 2014 at 7:41 AM

      What statistical "advice" was that?

    3. Applying a basic statistical test to rule out a chance hypothesis. Here and here.


  5. Adm. G Boggs, Glenbeckistan NavyFebruary 10, 2014 at 8:14 AM

    As usual, the "scientists" giving statistical "advice" are suggesting a survey. Take a sample, count the times X occurs, and see whether that deviates from your expected value.

    According to Toots, the "postdoc" who got "audited", X is IRS audits.

    That's weird. Tax audits weren't the issue.

    D'Souza was accused of felony campaign finance irregularities. Note also that Pierce O'Donnell, who illegally contributed even more dollars to John Edwards, was charged with a misdemeanor.

    O'Keefe was arrested for phone tampering in Louisana, harassed by the DoJ for exposing election law violations in NH, and subpoenaed by the Department of Labor in NY.

    Nakoula Basseley Nakoula (aka Sam Bacile), the producer of the video that allegedly "caused" the Libyan assault was arrested on probation violations.

    Friends of Abe weren't "audited". The IRS demanded the turn over confidential files

    Never, ever pay for statistical advice from Toots & Troi, Ltd.

    But go ahead, Toots. Do your little study. I'm sure the reviewers at will pick it up if you include some twitterometry.

    1. Adm. G Boggs, Glenbeckistan NavyFebruary 10, 2014 at 8:34 AM

      Exactly, Popeye. Like the Weather Underground and the Teamsters Union.

      A possibly canonical case occurred when over 65 people in the Clinton Administration invoked the 5th Amendment, Rep Dan Burton asked the Director of the FBI, Judge Louis Freeh, if that was unusual. The following exchange occurred:

      Dan Burton: "Mr. Freeh, over 65 people have invoked the Fifth Amendment or fled the country in the course of the committee's investigation. Have you ever experienced so many unavailable witnesses in any matter in which you've prosecuted or in which you've been involved?"

      Louis Freeh, FBI Director: "Actually, I have."

      Burton: "You have? Give me a rundown on that real quickly."

      Freeh: "I spent about 16 years doing organized crime cases in New York City. And many people were frequently unavailable."

    2. Gramps, you're not doing well today, even by your own low standards.

      It wasn't me who brought up IRS audits. It was JQ.



    3. Adm. G Boggs, Glenbeckistan NavyFebruary 10, 2014 at 10:39 AM

      Well, gee whiz! I thought the comments were about Egnor's post! Silly me. I should have known it was about one of your rabbit trails based on a partial reading of a commenter's post.

      Audits. :-)

      But let's suppose that you really were that stupid. That's easy, right?

      Operationally define "famous". We'll need that to get a sample.

      Are there a "couple hundred" famous ones? The operational definition of "famous" will surely limit the maximum sample size. Personally, most folks would be hard-pressed to list 200 "famous" conservatives. So show us how it's done. List a couple hundred.

      Are we talking about private returns or, say the returns for a "famous" conservative's company (e.g., American Crossroads)?

      Because, as you can see from these tables, Tootles, the likelihood of being audited runs from basically nil to almost 10%, depending.

      I'm afraid your little survey needs work.

      As I said folks, don't buy statistical advice from the Toots and Troi Excellent Survey Shack.

    4. Adm. G Boggs, Glenbeckistan NavyFebruary 10, 2014 at 11:59 AM

      Mr Testy!

      Hoots: "JQ also was the one who brought up well-known conservatives..."

      Oh, I see how you got on that rabbit trail! You thought they were talking about "famous" conservatives when they were actually talking about conservatives who loudly oppose the Obama Administration. And it wasn't only conservatives, it was conservative organizations. Unless there are famous conservative guys out there named Friends Of Abe and Tea Party. Odd names, even for famous conservative guys. They usually have names like Archibald Mitchell "bitchy Mitchy" LaBoeuf IV or Oswin Rayburn "call me Ray" Pecksniff, Jr.

      Here's what I suggest: a very famous, super-smart, erudite, and important scientifical-type guy once said:

      "Forget math, start with reading comprehension."

      You should follow his advice.

    5. Gramps: You thought they were talking about "famous" conservatives when they were actually talking about conservatives who loudly oppose the Obama Administration.

      LOL. The fallacy of affirming a disjunct. So original!

      One can be both a famous conservative and one who loudly opposes the Obama administration. The two people mentioned by JQ (Glenn Beck and Ben Carson) were members of both categories.

      Gramps, if you weren't that old, I'd advise you to go to school and get some edukashun. But there's no point in that, you'll forget everything you've learned after recess.


    6. Adm. G Boggs, Glenbeckistan NavyFebruary 10, 2014 at 3:13 PM

      Tooter: "One can be both a famous conservative and one who loudly opposes the Obama administration"

      And one can be a famous conservative and not one who loudly opposes the Obama Administration. (Gov Christie)

      And one can be a relatively unknown conservative who loudly opposes the Obama Administration. (C Engelbrecht)

      And, of course, one can be neither.

      Your point?

      And I'm afraid I won't be taking any advice, paid or free, from the Toots and Troi Excellent Survey Shack.

    7. Christie isn't a conservative, Gramps. He is a moderate governor in a blue state.

      Engelbrecht no one cares about precisely because he is unknown.

      That's missing two out of two. Perfect score, Gramps!


    8. Adm. G Boggs, Glenbeckistan NavyFebruary 10, 2014 at 5:13 PM

      Missing two what?

      Add "conservative" to "famous" for an operational definition.

      After being denied a speaking slot last year at the largest annual gathering of conservatives, New Jersey Republican Gov. Chris Christie has accepted an invitation to speak at the 2014 Conservative Political Action Conference...
      --- Yahoo News 2/2/14

      Your "opinion" doesn't count.

      Tooter: "Engelbrecht no one cares about precisely because he is unknown"

      That's "she", Toots. And she is being harrassed by Obama's IRS, has filed suit, has testified in Congress on the issue, is not "famous", and is conservative. As defined by conservatives, not as defined by weird trolls desperate to scrabble up some kind of dignity after a major Stoopid.

      Great survey, Toots!

    9. LOL, Gramps, you are on a roll.

      Speakers at CPAC are Republican candidates who pitch their candidacy to the conservatives. Mitt Romney spoke at CPAC in 2008. He isn't a conservative by a long shot. Like Christie, he was a moderate governor of a blue state. ObamaCare was modeled on his healthcare system.


  6. It’s not a coincidence that there will be proportionally more people ignoring the law from the crowd that vociferously cry that laws and regulations they don’t like are burdensome, unjust, infringe on their freedom, and are unconstitutional.


  7. OMG, I just found out it’s not just conservatives being targeted. Just like James O’Keefe, my neighbor the drywall contractor is being targeted by the state to prove he’s paid his contribution to unemployment insurance. I don’t know what the Bolshevik Fascist Nazi Progressives have against against drywall contractors, but clearly they want to dive them out of business or out of the state.