Tuesday, November 6, 2012

My prediction...

(As if you care what I predict...)

For those who do care:

Romney will win easily.

I predict Romney 53%, Obama 47%

Electoral votes: Romney 315, Obama 225.

Repubs will obviously hold the House, and probably gain a couple of seats.

Repubs will gain Senate seats, and may take the Senate (50/50 chance).

The polls are underestimating the "I will crawl over broken glass" vote against Obama.

It won't be close.


  1. The polls are underestimating the "I will crawl over broken glass" vote against Obama.

    One of the very common delusions of insane people is that everyone else shares their delusions.

  2. Well, actually you should be predicting which states Romney wins from Obama. Unless you do that, your prediction is worthless.

    Knowing that you're confident of a Romney victory makes me more certain that Obama will win.

  3. As a non-American, if Romney wins I will be laughing. And maybe crying for the sane Americans.

    1. No reason to cry.

      The ironic thing is Romney is a lot more mainstream than all of the other Republican candidates who ran for the nomination. In fact, Obama's signature healthcare legislature was modelled on a similar reform instituted by Governor Romney of Massachusetts. It was hilarious to watch Romney bend over backwards over that. Even if he is elected today, I do not think he will end up repealing the healthcare act.

      It is anyway unlikely that Romney will win. The polls paint a consistent picture. Romney has one chance in twelve to win, according to Nate Silver.

      The polls can be wrong, and Republicans surely hope that they are. We shall see shortly.

  4. Total number of electoral votes in Egnor's reality: (315 + 225) = 540

    Total number of electoral votes in actual reality: 538

  5. I think you're a bit optimistic, Dr. Egnor.


  6. This one's for you, KW:


    Remember, voter fraud never happens.

    And another one:


    "I have voted once in Beaufort, once in Henderson, twice in Emerald Isle and will vote in my precinct in PKS," he reportedly wrote on a friend's Facebook page. "I will do whatever it takes to save our country from the world envisioned by Mitt and his fear mongering followers," he added.

    And one more:



    1. Three people convicted of voter fraud and a guy bragging on his face book page isn’t a national crisis requiring the disenfranchisement of thousands of (mostly democratic) voters. Totally preventable structural problems impact election results far more than voting fraud, but Republicans don’t care about those one bit because confusion and tossed ballots is what they want.

      In the last couple of days residents of many mostly Democratic precincts have been receiving robo-calls instructing them to go to the wrong polling places, that they can vote over the phone, or that they vote on Wednesday. Legions of Tea Partiers are descending on minority polling places in battleground states ready use tactics they have been trained to use in order to disenfranchise as many people as possible, and false advertisements are running in urban markets in swing states telling people they need ID to vote when they don’t. In Republican controlled states it’s common for minority voters to have to wait in line 5 hours or more to vote because these districts are intentionally under-resourced. If it where up to me this would all be criminal.
      As Paul Weyrich, co-founder of the Heritage Foundation said "I don't want everybody to vote. Elections are not won by a majority of the people. They never have been from the beginning of our country and they are not now. As a matter of fact, our leverage in the elections quite candidly goes up as the voting populace goes down." Voter disenfranchisement is a cornerstone of Republican election strategy.


  7. Regardless of any other predictions, here is a prediction that has no possibility of failing --

    Should Obama "win" the popular vote and fail to win the Electoral College, leftists (i.e. "liberals" and Democrats) will, once again, demand the abolition of the Electoral College, and will likely demand that the legal result be overturned right now.

    On the other hand, should Romney "win" the popular vote and fail to win the Electoral College, leftists (i.e. "liberals" and Democrats) will NOT SAY A WORD about the abolition of the Electoral College, and will certainly not likely demand that the legal result be overturned right now.

  8. Oh, Ilion, your naivete is delightful! What makes you think "leftists" are different from conservatives in this regard?

    If Obama loses the popular vote, but wins the Electoral College, conservatives will spend weeks bleating about how the election was "unfair" and the EC should be abolished.

    Partisans are partisans, left or right. You attribute to "leftists" a human failing that is common to all stripes.

  9. I’m liberal and I’m for getting rid of the Electoral College no matter the election results. However, only a fool would call for the rules to be changed retroactively because they don’t like the election results.


  10. Ha ha ha ha. Certainly it looks as if Michael's prediction is going down in flames. And Obama is going to win.

    So now it's going to be another 4 years of gridlock with the Republicans continuing to pigheadedly obstruct in Congress and the Senate.

    Instead of Romney precipitating a double dip recession if he cuts government spending (as David Cameron did in Britain) as he promised.

    And the two rape Republicans lost races they should have won in the Senate.

  11. Egnor proves himself to be as good an election prognosticator as he is an evolutionary biologist, a physicist, a computer scientist, a philosopher, and a constitutional lawyer.

    Egnor: pathetic loser with delusions of grandeur.

  12. LOL. Obama wins a second term and the Dems have the Senate. Nate Silver was right.

  13. Ilion: just as I predicted, Donald Trump (wrongly believing that Romney would win the popular vote) suggested a "revolution" was the proper response to Obama winning the electoral college.

    Now, how about an apology? Not that I think you are capable of it.

  14. Seems I was beaten to the punch with the Donald Trump reference. The man is a damn left wing apologist, clearly.

    First Time Caller (Calling Again)

  15. Egnor thought there was going to be a huge vote by Republicans: "I will crawl over broken glass" vote against Obama.

    In fact, Republican turnout was lower than it was in the last two elections.

    That's Egnor for you: wronger than wrong. But will he admit it? Of course not! That would require honesty and integrity.